Main Subject - Finance

"There are many ways to skin a cat." This axiom applies as well to the subject of Market Timing. The tools available today are numerous, allowing for both creative and confusing analysis.

In my nearly two decades as a trader and market analyst

According to USFDA, a combination product is one composed of any combination of a drug and device; biological product and device; drug and biological product

, I've seen many approaches used in an attempt to time market turns and plan trades. Most often, having many different approaches leads to greater confusion and a lack of confidence in the results. Keeping the analysis simple is most often the

; or drug, device, and biological product and fixed dose combination would include two or more combinations of drug.

Examples of combination products may in

est way to go.

One very simple analysis technique that is often overlooked is the "top-down approach". This employs using multiple time-frames to zero-in on the direction the market should be traded in.

Another common axiom is that "the trend

lude drug-coated devices, drugs packaged with delivery devices in medical kits, and drugs and devices packaged separately but intended to be used together.

is your friend". One of the best ways I have found to determine the trend is to use the top-down time-frame approach and a single chart indicator called the Stochastic.

APPLICATION

Starting with a 'monthly' chart of the market to be analyzed

here is enormous increase in the number of combination products entering the market in the recent years. Combination products have proven advantages but fixe

apply a single Slow Stochastic set to 5,5,5. I have found this setting works quite well for this purpose. However, feel free to experiment with other settings, such as 5,3,3 or any other, to see which appears to work best for the market you ar

d dose combinations are still in the process of convincing regulatory authority on their advantages over the single ingredient formulations.

Combination pro

e analyzing. Remember, each market behaves differently and so there is not a "one size fits all" here.

With the indicator plotted on your 'monthly' chart, note the current monthly direction and whether the Stochastic oscillator supports it. If

ucts have become life saving products for the pharmaceutical companies who doesn’t have many innovative molecules in their product pipeline and have been inc

you see that the Stochastic has been moving up from the oversold zone (this zone is usually below 20-25) towards the 50, even better above it and towards 80 (75-80 usually is considered the overbought zone), and that monthly prices appear to ha

easingly used in the product life cycle management. Even the companies having product patents are trying to extend their product life cycle through the combi

ve been forming higher swing bottoms and tops, you know the trend is up for the 'long-term'.

Then moving down to the 'weekly' chart, you do the same exact thing. If the 'monthly' is considered up, you want to see the 'weekly' doing the same. W

nation products and maximize the revenues. But the companies involved in this practice are overlooking that they are burdening the patients both economically

en it is, then move down to the 'daily' chart.

Once the 'weekly' is in sync with the 'monthly' as to the trend, you can go to the 'daily' chart. On the daily chart, following our example of a bullish trend, we want to watch for prices to 'pull

and physically. They need to rightly judge the benefits of the combination products and they have to even look at the risks involved when combining the produ

-back' (also known as 'retrace' or trend 'correction' - moving down against the bull trend) and the Stochastic to go oversold. If it does this and daily prices have NOT moved lower than the low of the last 'pull-back' (retrace - trend correctio

ts. Some of the combination products were well accepted by physicians while others suffered. Companies involved in development of combination products are fi

) on the 'daily' chart, then the probability is very high that the daily trend is likely to start to resume its original trend (start back up again in this example).

If you have access to intraday charts as well, you can further refine your ti

ding difficulty in defining their combination products and facing various challenges from selecting a combination to marketing it.

Following aspects would a

ing. Go to the 1-hour chart and apply the same technique as you did to the time frames above. From there, go to the 10-minute chart and do the same. From my experience, I have not found it necessary to go any lower than 10-minutes. One importan

dd to the challenges in developing combination products:

Which markets to tap where the combination products can do fairly well?
Which combination prod

t detail here using the intraday charts is that you may with to WAIT until the intraday pattern on the 1-hour chart looks like a 1-2-3 formation pattern (1 being the bottom of the hourly move. 2 being the rally up. 3 being the next move down th

cts are meaningful and rational?
Which therapeutic categories to select?
Which Combinations can address unmet needs of the patients?
Do combin

t does not move below the bottom low of 1 at the time the Stochastic goes oversold on the hourly as well as the 10-minute chart).

You will want to practice this for a short period before relying on your analysis for timing your trades. While t

tions increase the patient compliance?
What would be the developing cost?
How to tackle the risks encountered during combination product developmen

his is a very simple market timing approach that anyone can do, it does require getting familiar with working with different time-frames. As a Market Analyst and trader for nearly two decades now, I have found that one extra indication makes a

t?

As combination products don't fit into the traditional categories of drugs, medical devices, or biological products, the USFDA is in the process of devel

ery big difference in market timing. This would be the use of 'time dates'.

Using 'time dates' along with the technique above, you are zeroed into a time 'period' in which to watch for the above to occur. If you are using the simple 'top-down

ping new procedures for reviewing their safety, efficacy and quality.

Professional from academic institutions, pharmaceutical industries, health care indust

approach' taught in this article and you think you have a buy signal, but this signal happens to be a couple days outside of the next 'time date', it is a good tipoff that you may be perhaps a day early and should wait that extra day, perhaps t

y and representatives from various regulatory agencies are working out to design the regulatory requirements for manufacture and sale of combination products

o. You may find that you still end up with your original signal, but now INSIDE the 'time-date' window. This is a REAL EDGE to market timing.

The 'time-dates' I'm referring to is of course the ones produced using a proprietary geo-cyclic algor

.

As there is an increasing trend of the combination products companies manufacturing such products should be able to tackle the problems involved in the de

ithm within the PROGNOS Market Forecasting software. While this software is only available for purchase by our clients with at least one-year as a Premium Member, the weekly results from this program are provided via our weekly PROGNOS Report i

elopment. They need to be wiser in analyzing the market trends and the regulatory requirements.

Companies that provide selfless information through particip

sued to all our client/members. Having these 'time-dates' for market tops and bottoms along with using the simple 'top-down approach' taught above, traders can time market moves with greater precision with less risk and greater profit potential

tion in industry events and feedback to regulatory authorities would be able to face the challenges and will be successful in developing combination products

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